Australian researchers have come up with a mathematical formula to help predict bone fractures in women 60 years and older. The formula factors in bone mineral density at the hip and spine, history of fractures and falls, and weight. Researchers dub the formula FRISK (fracture risk) score.FRISK was created by looking at 679 women ages 60 and older. Participants included 231 women with an average age of 74 who had had minor bone fractures in the two years prior to the study. The other 448 women with an average age of 72) had no bone fractures during that time. Both groups included women with normal bone mineral density, osteopenia, and osteoporosis.
Osteopenia is bone mineral density that's lower than normal but not in the osteoporosis range. Osteoporosis is bone mineral density that's dangerously low, making fractures more likely.
The women's weight, bone mineral density at the hip and spine, history of falls, and previous fractures were tracked to get a FRISK score. Then the researchers tracked the women's fractures for the next five to six years. During the first two years, the FRISK formula accurately predicted 75% of the women's fractures. The odds of having a new fracture were higher for women with low bone-mineral density, past fractures, and a history of falls.
Lighter women tend to have lower bone mineral density; heavier women have higher density. And lighter women have been considered at greater risk for osteoporosis. However, after taking bone-mineral density into account, lighter women weren't at greater risk of fractures. Lighter women with strong bones weren't especially likely to have fractures.
Adjusting for bone-mineral density showed that heavier women are at greater risk of fractures. Heavier weights apply more force to the skeleton during falls.
The formula's accuracy faded as the years passed, likely due to factors not included in the formula. The researchers are currently gauging fracture risk factors in men ages 60 and older. Stay tuned. (Web MD)
